A new study analyzing over 500 AI supercomputers from 2019 to 2025 reveals that their computational performance has been doubling every 9 months. This rapid growth is fueled by a yearly 1.6x increase in both the number of chips used per system and the performance of each individual chip. The study, conducted by Epoch AI, highlights a dramatic shift in ownership, with companies’ share of total computing power rising from approximately 40% in 2019 to an impressive 80% by 2025. This centralization of power in the private sector, led by the United States, which holds 75% of the total computing power in the dataset, has profound implications for the future of AI development and innovation.
The exponential growth comes with significant costs. The power requirements and hardware costs for these supercomputers have also been doubling every year. For example, xAI's Colossus, as of March 2025, had an estimated hardware cost of $7 billion and required 300 megawatts of power. The article projects that if these trends continue, the largest AI supercomputer in 2030 would cost hundreds of billions of dollars and require a staggering 9 gigawatts of power, an amount equivalent to nine nuclear reactors. This immense power demand presents a major bottleneck that may necessitate new solutions, such as decentralized training approaches, to keep pace with technological progress.
Despite the challenges, the historical growth in chip production and capital commitments from projects like Project Stargate suggest that the cost and chip requirements for these future supercomputers could be met. The study's projections paint a vivid picture of a future where AI systems are not only more powerful but also more concentrated in corporate hands. This trend underscores the urgent need for a strategic approach to managing the economic, environmental, and geopolitical consequences of this unparalleled technological acceleration.
Epoch AI. (n.d.). Trends in AI supercomputers. https://epoch.ai/blog/trends-in-ai-supercomputers
AI, Supercomputers, Technology, Growth, Trends
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